Manpower survey indicates significant slowdown of the SA labour market
08-JUN-09
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey of local hiring trends reveals a considerable slowdown in the pace of hiring in the third quarter of 2009.
In fact, this is the weakest hiring forecast from employers since the survey was established in South Africa in 2006.
The Net Employment Outlook for South Africa has decreased by 12 percentage points to +2% from the second quarter of 2009. Even more significant is the increase of 8 percentage points in the number of employers that indicated that they will reduce staff in the third quarter - this figure is up from 7 percent in the second quarter, to 15 percent in the third quarter.
In South Africa, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 751 small, medium and large employers.
All survey participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2009 as compared to the current quarter?”
The “Net Employment Outlook” figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter
.“Our experience in the market certainly reflects the findings of the survey,” said Jan Coetzee, Managing Director of Manpower South Africa.
“The number of permanent placement orders that we are working on for clients have certainly decreased over the past two months as more and more companies are not looking at hiring permanent staff during the economic downturn, or are reducing staff. There is, however, still a strong need for experienced and skilled engineering and technical staff.”
From a South African perspective, 17 percent of employers surveyed anticipate adding to their headcount in Quarter 3 2009, 15 percent expect headcount to decrease, 67 percent anticipate no change, and 1 percent indicate that they are unsure whether they will increase or reduce headcount during the coming quarter.
The most favourable prospects for job seekers are forecast by employers in the Restaurants & Hotels sector, who report a Net Employment Outlook of +19%. There are also upbeat hiring intentions in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, where the Outlook is +12%.
Employers in the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector report an upbeat Outlook of +10%, while there are encouraging signs for job seekers in the Public & Social sector and the Transport, Storage & Communication sector, reflected in Outlooks of +8% and +7%, respectively.
However, employers in three sectors forecast weak hiring prospects, with a particularly gloomy Outlook of -21% reported by Manufacturing sector employers. Gloomy forecasts are also reported by employers in the Construction sector (-13%) and the Mining and Quarrying sector (-11%).
Quarter-over-quarter, the hiring climate has weakened in all but one sector. The exception is the Restaurants & Hotels sector, where employers improve their Outlook by a moderate 6 percentage points.
Elsewhere, there have been some steep declines in Outlooks, most notably by 32 percentage points in the Manufacturing sector, and by 22 percentage points in the Mining & Quarrying sector.
Year-over-year, there is a similar pattern, with the only improved Outlook reported in the Restaurants & Hotels sector, where employer hiring intentions improve by a moderate 8 percentage points.
In all other sectors prospects for job seekers are weaker. The steepest declines are reported by Manufacturing sector employers, whose Outlook is 36 percentage points weaker. Mining & Quarrying sector employers and Construction sector employers also report steep declines of 33 and 30 percentage points, respectively.
Quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects are weaker in all five major economic regions. Employers in the Eastern Cape report the most notable decline of 18 percentage points in their regional Outlook, and there are also considerable declines of 14 and 12 percentage points reported by employers in Gauteng and Western Cape, respectively.
From a global perspective, job prospects in the Manufacturing industry sector have deteriorated further across Continental Europe and contributed to German employers’ first negative hiring forecast in three years.
The hiring picture in the U.S. remains unchanged from the second quarter, with the rate of labor market contraction expected to level off in the quarter ahead.
"Compared to three months ago, a greater percentage of the world’s employers are telling us they will make no changes to their workforces, suggesting that the worst could be behind us.
"In the U.S., the cautious hiring pace will remain a challenge for job seekers, as employers continue to adjust and align their workforces throughout the year to ride out this downturn and prepare for growth on the other side," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman and CEO of Manpower Inc.
"Across Europe, we are seeing a continued weaker appetite for employees in the Manufacturing sector. In fact, in Europe’s largest economy, the percentage of German manufacturers expecting layoffs rose nine percent compared to the previous quarter," Joerres said.
Employers in 11 of 34 countries and territories surveyed expect some positive hiring activity in the coming quarter, but those in 22 countries are forecasting negative outlooks with 17 reporting their weakest hiring plans since the survey was established.
While employers in all countries and territories are reporting weaker year-over-year forecasts, outlooks have improved from three months ago in 12 countries.
Although weaker than historical patterns, third-quarter hiring plans are strongest in India, Norway, Poland, Peru, Singapore and Taiwan and weakest in Ireland, Spain, Greece, Romania, Italy, Japan and the U.K.
