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Manpower Employment Outlook

WC hiring plans for 2012 going strong

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 13:58

Four out of the five South African provinces surveyed in the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey show scaled back hiring plans for Q1 2012 over Q1 2011 with only the Eastern Cape showing an increase inemployment plans. However despite the decline in the year over year figures, the Western Cape still shows the strongest plans for increasing staff levels for the New Year.

The results form part of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey which forecasts labour market trends in the 5 South African provinces for each quarter of the year,based on surveys with hundreds of South African Businesses.

The survey shows that employers in the Western Cape anticipate the strongest hiring plans for the first quarter of 2012, with an Outlook of +2%. Kwazulu-Natal and the Free State expect negative workforce growth with Net Employment Outlook of -5% and -4%, respectively.

Compared to Q4 2011 all regions show weaker hiring plans, the most notable being the decline of 6 percentage points in both Kwazulu-Natal and Gauteng, followed by a 5 percentage point decrease in the Free State. The Outlook declines year-over-year in four of the five regions with the most notable decline reported by employers in the Free State where the Outlook drops 13 percentage points.

A provincial breakdown follows:

Eastern Cape

Eastern Cape employers report cautious hiring plans for Quarter 1 2012, with a Net Employment Outlook of +1%. When compared with the previous quarter, hiring prospects weaken by 3 percentage points, but the Outlook is 3 percentage points stronger year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report some encouraging signs for job seekers in the upcoming quarter. The Outlook is slightly stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Free State

The Free State’s Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 1 2012 is -4%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook declines by 5 percentage points, and employers report a considerable decrease of 13 percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report disappointing hiring plans for the coming quarter. The Outlook weakens slightly when compared with the previous quarter, and employers report a considerable decline year-over-year.

Gauteng

Gauteng employers report subdued hiring plans for Quarter 1 2012, with a Net Employment Outlook of -1%. The Outlook declines by 6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 5 percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report cautious hiring intentions for the coming quarter. The Outlook is slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter and also declines moderately year-over-year.

Kwazulu Natal

Kwazulu Natal’s Net Employment Outlook is -5% for the upcoming quarter. The Outlook declines by 6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but remains relatively stable when compared with Quarter 1 2011.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers predict a sluggish hiring pace in Quarter 1 2012. The Outlook is moderately weaker quarter-over-quarter, but remains relatively stable year-over-year.

Western Cape

Western Cape employers anticipate slow-paced workforce gains in Quarter 1 2012, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +2%. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects remain relatively stable, but the Outlook is 4 percentage points weaker year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers predict modest payroll gains in Quarter 1 2012. The Outlook is unchanged quarter-over-quarter, but moderately weaker year-over-year.

According to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, National figures show that South African employers are expecting the hiring pace to slow to its least optimistic level since the survey started in the 4th Quarter of 2006. The Net Employment Outlook of -1% represents a slight decrease of 4 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Although eight out of 10 employers expect to keep their existing workforces intact during the first three months of the year, the percentage of employers who indicate they will reduce payrolls in the first quarter of 2012 exceeds the percentage of employers who intend to add staff.

“The uncertainty of a resolution to the European debt crises seems to be one of the prime reasons for slow growth in employment,” says Peter Winn, MD of Manpower SA. “With Europe being one of South Africa’s primary export destinations, continuing market instability in the Eurozone means fewer sales for South African companies. A positive resolution to the issues facing Europe may see a positive increase in employment predictions next year.”

“Furthermore, lower than expected growth figures and projections for the country have affected hiring plans for many companies. Further volatility in Africa, and mixed messages from Government regarding nationalisation of mines and uncompensated redistribution of land, has made investors and employers cautious when estimating future international investment and growth. Heightened strike action over 2011 has also seen employers holding back on increasing employment as they take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to the attitudes of unions for 2012.”

“Market uncertainty around the world continues to hamper South African employment growth. Initiatives that would otherwise have had positive influences on employment, such as international entrants to the country and government job creation schemes, have not seemed to deliver the outcomes previously anticipated,” concludes Winn. “Until there are more positive signs, employers will continue to throttle their hiring pace and add employees only when they absolutely have to,” concludes Winn.