At approximately 11 PM on Wednesday, Eskom announced that stage 6 loadshedding will be implemented until further notice after the breakdown of a generation unit at the Medupi Power Station. Before the announcement, the country experienced power cuts between stage 5 and stage loadshedding.
Eskom said they will provide further updates as soon as any significant changes occur. However, the power unit warned that the stages of loadshedding could change at short notice should more breakdowns occur at power stations or if there is a surge in electricity demand.
Energy analyst Clyde Mallinson says that based on calculations in which expected energy demand is weighted against the performance of Eskom's generation fleet, the stages of loadshedding could reach stage 7 before the end of April 2023.
The chart that I produced said that if the coal fleet is running at about 45%/46% Capacity Factor, we can expect stage seven I think it was in April and we sit in stage six now
During the final days of March 2023, Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said that South Africa wouldn't have to suffer power cuts higher than Stage 6. However, the minister warned South Africans to brace for a tough winter.
Ramokgopa recently concluded a tour of Eskoms’ power stations to gain insight into the challenges facing different power stations. The minister engaged with station managers, workers and unions to solutions to increase the energy availability factor at stations and combat loadshedding.
Mallinson says it would have been difficult to gain a full understanding of the technical challenges facing each power station. This is because the technical state of each plant is not just the function of the state of the different generation units.
Several factors can contribute to the performance of a coal power station including transportation of coal, coal stacking, coal grinding, the state of the heat exchangers, calcium build up and the ash disposal system.
There's a whole number of things that need to be looked at when you're looking at a coal plant and it's difficult to assess those even if you've got all the information, never mind if you're just having a whistle-stop tour.
Mallinson says the country could experience stage 9 loadshedding in June. They added that nothing can be done in the short term to alleviate the situation, except simply individuals reducing demand.
