The South African government has welcomed a decision by Moody’s Ratings to revise the country’s sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to positive.
At the same time, Moody’s affirmed South Africa’s domestic and foreign-currency long-term ratings at Ba2.
According to the National Treasury, South Africa is now the only Group of Twenty (G20) country currently holding a positive outlook from Moody’s.
Positive Outlook Signals Growing Confidence
The improved outlook comes at a time when global credit ratings are facing pressure. Since the start of the current Middle East conflict, more than 23 sovereign credit ratings around the world have been negatively affected.
Moody’s said its decision was based on South Africa’s improving fiscal performance and continued commitment to structural reforms.
"The agency expects a rising primary surplus and gradually improving debt-service costs to stabilise the government debt burden in the near term," the National Treasury said.
Although the ongoing Middle East conflict may affect South Africa’s short-term economic growth, Moody’s believes the country’s policy response will remain stable and macroeconomic conditions will be maintained.
Economic Growth Expected To Improve
Moody’s expects ongoing reforms and stronger investment levels to gradually increase South Africa’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to around 2% by 2028.
The ratings agency also forecasts that South Africa’s primary fiscal surplus could rise to approximately 2% by 2028, helping to reduce the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio over time.
National Treasury Responds To Moody’s Decision
National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said the latest outlook revision reflects growing confidence in South Africa’s fiscal management.
"We continue to focus on our two fiscal objectives: ensuring that revenue remains higher than non-interest spending, and maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio that declines from the current year onwards. We plan to embed the fiscal turnaround through the introduction of a fiscal anchor for South Africa," Pieterse said.
The National Treasury reiterated government’s commitment to lowering public debt levels while continuing social spending and implementing reforms aimed at supporting economic growth and job creation.
First Positive Outlook Since 2007
This marks Moody’s first positive outlook for South Africa since 2007. That positive outlook was later followed by a ratings upgrade in 2009.
The latest development also follows S&P Global Ratings’ decision in November 2025 to upgrade South Africa’s rating by one notch while maintaining a positive outlook.
Additional reporting by SANews.gov.za.
